Weakening Jobs Data Could Be the First Sign of a Slowdown - Barron's

A pair of job-market readings Thursday underline concerns Federal Reserve officials expressed in their last meeting about a slowing economy.

First, the Labor Department said Americans filed 227,000 initial jobless claims—the second consecutive five-month high. Analysts note the Veterans Day holiday and California wildfires could be boosting claims, but they say the rising number of people filing for unemployment could mean something more.

Meanwhile, the employment component of the latest regional manufacturing report weakened last month to the worst level since August. The Philadelphia Fed bank said the current employment index dropped 11 points in November as fewer manufacturing firms in the area added to their payrolls.

The Fed’s October meeting minutes, released Wednesday, revealed mounting concerns over the economy, flagging risk for the unemployment rate. “A number of participants were concerned that weakness in business spending, manufacturing, and exports could spill over to labor markets and consumer spending and threaten the economic expansion,” the minutes said, pointing to risks stemming from global economic growth and trade tensions.

It remains to be seen if the latest readings wind up as blips or portend a more meaningful slowdown. Some economists note that the Philadelphia region has relatively lower dependence on exports to China, which could suggest other regions are feeling more pain on account of the U.S.-China trade disputes.

Yale professor Robert Shiller, author of the new book "Narrative Economics," speaks with Caroline Woods about what factors will drive U.S. stocks "substantially" higher.

“You can’t have a recession without job losses so the million dollar question is whether first time claims for jobless benefits will come back down over the next few weeks,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG.

Write to Lisa Beilfuss at lisa.beilfuss@dowjones.com

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Weakening Jobs Data Could Be the First Sign of a Slowdown - Barron's
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