With help from Ian Kullgren and Allie Bice
Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Shift is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Employment & Immigration subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. Learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services at politicopro.com.
Quick Fix
Story Continued Below
— November jobs numbers will be out this morning.
— Report: the NLRB used flawed data in its union election rulemaking.
— Worksite immigration enforcement has quadrupled under Trump.
GOOD MORNING! It’s Friday, Dec. 6, and this is Morning Shift, your daily tipsheet on employment and immigration news. Send tips, exclusives, and suggestions to rrainey@politico.com, ikullgren@politico.com, and tnoah@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter at @RebeccaARainey,@IanKullgren, and @TimothyNoah1.
Driving the Day
IT’S JOBS DAY: Economists surveyed by Econoday predict the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report 180,000 new jobs created in November, a pickup from 128,000 in October. Unemployment, they forecast, will have held steady in November at 3.6 percent, and yearly wage growth will have remained 3 percent. The private payroll company ADP was much less optimistic, reporting Wednesday that its own survey indicated only 67,000 private-sector jobs were added in November.
“The job market is losing its shine,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “Manufacturers, commodity producers, and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further, unemployment will increase.”
Bill Spriggs, the AFL-CIO's chief economist, told Morning Shift that retail jobs is the number to watch. "It will be interesting to see whether retailers feel more confident this year than last year," he said. "If it doesn't show something really positive. ... I think the first quarter is going to be pretty bumpy."
"If you look at where we are right now with respect to where we were a year ago, jobs creation on a monthly basis is down 26 percent," Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com’s senior economic analyst, told Morning Shift. But 11 years into an expansion, some slowing is expected. "What we want to see is where are we with the trends of the broader economy," Hamrick said, "particularly the time when ... the manufacturing sector has contracted for four straight months."
You can find BLS's November jobs numbers starting at 8:30 a.m. The Job Quality Index, an unofficial new monthly indicator from Cornell Law School researchers Dan Alpert, Jeffrey Ferry, Robert C. Hockett, and Amir Khaleghi, debuts today. The index measures the ratio of higher-wage, higher-hour jobs to lower-wage, lower-wage jobs. You'll find it here.
RELATED: “What to watch on jobs day,” from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute
NLRB
REPORT: NLRB USES FLAWED DATA IN UNION ELECTION RULE: The National Labor Relations Board overstated data in its proposed union election rule, according to Bloomberg Law’s Alex Ebert and Hassan Kanu, potentially making it harder for the rule to withstand legal challenge. The proposal would change the board’s "blocking charge" procedures, which put elections to join or decertify a union on hold to investigate allegations of management interference. The board argues that the current policy allows unions “to block an election indefinitely by filing unfair labor practice charges that allegedly create doubt as to the validity of the election petition.“
In the proposal, the NLRB determined that the median number of days cases with blocking charges were delayed ranged from 122-145 days. But Bloomberg Law’s review of that data “found dozens of cases in which the board overstated the length of delays attributable to blocking charges over the last three years — overshooting the mark in one instance by more than 12 years, and in another by five years.” The data in the rulemaking “over-counted delays in more than one-third of cases,” Ebert and Kanu report.
That could set the rule up for a legal challenge, some experts say. “They could handle a minor error easily, just by issuing an addendum, but this sounds like a big mistake,” Richard Pierce, a law professor at George Washington University, told Bloomberg Law. “If they proceed without correcting it, the resulting action would be hard to defend.”
The NLRB announced Thursday that it extended the comment period on the proposal by 30 days until Jan. 9.
Immigration
WORKPLACE IMMIGRATION INVESTIGATIONS JUMP UNDER TRUMP: Data obtained by the Wall Street Journal shows that ICE has opened four times more workplace immigration investigation under the Trump administration than during Obama's tenure. ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations opened 6,812 new workplace cases in 2019 compared to 1,701 in 2016, WSJ’s Michelle Hackman reports. While those numbers have gone up, investigations into drug smuggling, human trafficking and gang activity have gone down.
The law enforcement agency investigates a wide range of issues outside immigration, but has shifted its focus to match the administration’s hawkish immigration policies. “In the end, the numbers are the numbers,” said Matthew Allen, an acting deputy within the agency. “If you look at any police agency, they end up reflecting the priority of their administration. We’re no different.”
In the Courts
SOCIAL MEDIA VISA POLICY CHALLENGED IN COURT: A lawsuit filed Thursday challenges a Trump State Department rule that requires visa applicants to disclose their social media accounts, Charlie Savage reports for The New York Times. “The requirement grew out of President Trump’s campaign promise of ‘extreme vetting’ and his early executive orders that barred travel into the United States from several Muslim-majority nations.” More details from the Times.
HEARING IN OFCCP ORACLE SUIT: “The Department of Labor made its case in a hearing Thursday that Oracle underpaid women, Asians and black employees working in certain roles at its Silicon Valley headquarters by $401 million over the course of four years, one of the largest federal anti-discrimination cases to go before a judge,” Nitasha Tiku reports for The Washington Post. “The agency argues that pay disparities stem from Oracle’s practice of steering women, Asian people and black people into lower-paying jobs and relying on prior salaries to set their pay at Oracle.”
“The only thing worse than economic discrimination is economic discrimination subsidized by tax dollars,” Janet Herold from OFCCP said. But, the database company’s counsel argued that Oracle doesn’t discriminate and “pointed out that the company is run by a woman, CEO Safra Katz, who was sitting in the court room.” The company’s lawyer also argued DOL’s witness “compared employees based on broad job titles” and failed to consider differences in how software developers are valued in the market.
Last month, Oracle sued DOL, arguing that the OFCCP didn’t have the authority to enforce such discrimination claims. More from The Post. More on the lawsuit.
Unions
NEW LEADERSHIP AT THE UAW: The United Auto Workers executive board named union Vice President Rory Gamble acting president Wednesday, filling the vacancy left by former President Gary Jones who departed amid a widening federal corruption probe, POLITICO’s Ian Kullgren reports. “Gamble’s first order of business will be to stave off a federal takeover of the UAW, a threat that looms large as the full extent of the scandal comes into focus. Ten union officials have been charged thus far; on Wednesday a former UAW official pleaded guilty to taking bribes and kickbacks from a vendor.”
2020 Watch
KLOBUCHAR TAKES ON GIG ECONOMY: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) pledged Thursday to help gig-economy workers as president by simplifying the tax code and creating public savings and health care options. Klobuchar, in her “future of work” plan, said she would raise the minimum wage to $15, provide paid family leave, and create public retirement savings accounts that employers would contribute to.
Klobuchar’s plan would also offer tax credits to employers that provide training to workers whose jobs could be eliminated by automation. She called on Congress to pass the PRO Act, the expansive piece of pro-union legislation that business groups vehemently oppose, and said she would take anti-trust measures to discourage corporate consolidation.
The Minnesota moderate will seek to drum up support for her plan on a three-day swing through Iowa that will include forums with the Teamsters and the Iowa Farmers Union, the Associated Press’ Sara Burnett reports. More from the AP. Read Klobuchar’s plan in full.
In the Workplace
ADMINISTRATIVE EXODUS: More than 2.1 million administrative and office support jobs have disappeared from the labor market since 2000, and the exodus is expected to get worse, Heather Long reports for The Washington Post. The losses continued even during the economic recovery, she notes, “suggesting these jobs aren’t coming back.”
These occupations are estimated to log the largest job losses in the coming decade, “eroding what for decades had been a reliable path to the middle class for women without college degrees,” Long writes. Some economists say these job losses aren't attracting sufficient attention from presidential candidates. “If you think about the amount of emotional energy we’ve devoted to what the future of truck drivers is as opposed to the future of administrative assistants, it’s mind-boggling,” labor economist Martha Gimbel told the Post. “We’re so focused on jobs that men do that we allow the suffering of women in this area to be silent.” More from Long.
In the States
NEW YORK TO MOVE FORWARD ON WAGE INCREASES: “Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration has approved the next phase of minimum wage increases, saying that New York's low unemployment rates indicate the increases are not harming the state’s labor market,” POLITICO’s Anna Gronewold reports. “Beginning on Dec. 31, employees at New York City businesses with 10 or fewer workers will earn $15 an hour, alongside their counterparts in larger companies. On Long Island and in Westchester, the minimum wage will rise to $13 per hour. The wage in the rest of the state will increase to $11.80 an hour.”
The move comes after Cuomo’s budget division released a report concluding that a gradual rise since 2013 in the state’s hourly minimum has had “negligible” impact on job demand. But E.J. McMahonone of the right-leaning Empire Center for Public Policy complained that the report didn't address the upstate-downstate divide. “Upstate, the jobless rate is lower because there are fewer people looking for work,” McMahon wrote Thursday. More from POLITICO.
What We're Reading
— POLITICO New Jersey: “Senate committee approves controversial misclassification bill”
— “Lawmakers to introduce first federal bills to ban race-based hair discrimination,” from The Washington Post
— “MTA releases some details, as 'tentative' labor agreement moves forward,” from POLITICO
— “Booker and Castro accuse DNC of excluding minorities,” from POLITICO
— “Texas Judge Blocks Construction of Private Border Wall, for Now,” from The New York Times
— “Fairfax Connector workers go on strike Thursday,” from The Washington Post
— “Away’s founders sold a vision of travel and inclusion, but former employees say it masked a toxic work environment,” from The Verge
— “The U.S. Furniture Industry Is Back—but There Aren’t Enough Workers,” from The Wall Street Journal
THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING SHIFT!
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