The era of record low unemployment is coming to an end.
In November, the California State Legislative Analyst’s Office reported the “state fiscal health index” has declined for six consecutive months, with weakening occurring across key indicators throughout 2019. Closer to home, a 2019 Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation report warns that the L.A. region will lag the state “…due to the relatively higher unemployment rate and greater degree of labor market slack.”
Increasingly, even in traditional industries like manufacturing and logistics – mainstays in the L.A. economy — the workforce is moving toward the growing green economy and powered by machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI).
This transformation creates opportunity, but a faltering economy could disproportionately wreak havoc. If local leaders in public policy, business and labor want to protect regional jobs as the economy falters, they must collaboratively advocate for solutions that recognize regional trends and align with the Los Angeles workforce of the future.
First, Los Angeles has a greater preponderance of low-wage jobs with limited growth potential than other major urban regions. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from the last decade suggests wage growth is slowest in low-wage job sector. Low-wage households are more likely to experience familial instability, suffer with worse health issues, and face lower rates of inter-generational mobility.
However, the most recent jobs report shows a decline the average weekly hours in manufacturing over the last year and half, and a slowly growing recession may accelerate the elimination of jobs as well as compress hourly wages.
Second, our region faces more automation-related threats than many other regions. Many strong regional industries are incorporating new technological innovations that, while important and to remain competitive, threaten to replace solid jobs. Already, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and local labor unions have struggled with balancing the introduction of automation with the potential displacement of good-paying jobs, and logistics companies are relying on robotics to automate shipping.
Even white-collar jobs are at risk; a new study by Brookings Institute suggests that high-paying office jobs will also be affected by the rise of artificial intelligence. Data entry, analysis and auditing are now being managed via computers, for example, taking over many tasks formerly handled by a team of accountants.
Workforce skills training and job creation efforts must be geared toward this transformed workforce. These jobs have the potential to rebuild the region’s middle class if public-private investment is made into the infrastructure to support these new dynamics. The Los Angeles region will need workers to transform the power grid with charging stations for growing fleets of electric vehicles. It will need workers who will facilitate the transition to microgrids and allow new communities to have their own power source. It will need workers in the professional services sector with the training to manage the vast amounts of data that feed AI processes.Hockey star Wayne Gretzky once said: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” On December 12, the state Future of Work Commission will meet in Los Angeles to examine the current state of jobs and work in California, the factors have created these conditions, and the vision and path for work and jobs in the future. Now is the time for the Los Angeles business and labor community to adopt the Gretzky strategy and speak with one voice for investment that secures Los Angeles’ future.
David Smith, PhD, is a labor economist and associate professor of economics at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School.
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December 10, 2019 at 03:54PM
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With Los Angeles’ jobs bonanza over, a new economic era begins - LA Daily News
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