The state Labor Department's monthly jobs report released in December had far more significance than usual.
In November 2019, exactly 10 years from the end of the Great Recession, New York City tallied a record 4,670,000 jobs.
In that decade, employment increased by a record (of course) 963,700 jobs, a gain of 26%.
The 120-month economic expansion was the longest in decades and the best in both actual added jobs and the percentage increase.
So much for history. What’s next?
By the end of December, when the Independent Budget Office made its best guess of the future, all three official forecasts were complete. And the future calls for more growth if you believe the mayor, the city comptroller or the IBO. All three predict continued growth in the economy and wages through 2022. Job growth will slow somewhat, as will wages, but pay gains should still continue to outpace inflation, the predictions say.
Yet the three takes on the economy are different.
While acknowledging that last year's job gains were less than in 2018, Comptroller Scott Stringer emphasized the positive.
"Economic growth accelerated in the first three quarters of 2019, compared with the same period a year ago," Stringer said in leading off his section on the economy.
The IBO gave a nod to the record length of the expansion and then delivered its cautionary bottom line: "But the pace of the expansion has slowed markedly in 2019, and we forecast that it will slow further in 2020 and 2021."
Put the New York Fed in the IBO camp. A recent Fed report said growth had stalled throughout its region, adding "even in New York City, in what has been the prime engine of growth in the regional economy throughout this expansion, job creation has slowed."
I think the near-term key is the election because it could change assumptions for many investors and CEOs. Democrats running for office are promising to raise taxes on the wealthy by a lot and overhaul Wall Street, big tech and other industries. In the short term, that won’t be good for stocks or corporate profits, even if those policies make sense for everyone else.
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January 03, 2020 at 12:09AM
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City added 963,700 jobs within 10 years, according to Cuomo, IBO and Stringer - Crain's New York Business
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