The Labor Department’s report on November employment conditions will be released Friday morning at 8:30 Eastern time. Here’s a rundown of what economists expect and some of the factors investors should know.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate nonfarm payrolls growth of 190,000. That would be a marked pickup in hiring from October, when a better-than-expected 128,000 jobs were added.
Some of gains in November will be thanks to a reversal of the General Motors (ticker: GM) strike impact. Economists say GM strikers returning to work will add about 45,000 jobs. Subtracting that from the expected total would leave 145,000 new jobs, which fits with the trend of solid but slowing employment growth.
One factor behind the slowdown: The pool of available workers has been diminishing and is the lowest in decades.
Economists at Jefferies see upside to the consensus estimate. There’s a chance, they say, that some early hiring by the government for the 2020 census shows up in the November report, potentially adding around 15,000 jobs. They say it may be early to figure in Census Bureau hiring, but they expect census hiring will boost payrolls by as much as 500,000 by May 2020; it’s just a matter of when it starts showing up because, they say, there’s no clear historical pattern.
UBS, meanwhile, anticipates a below-consensus reading of 179,000. Economists there point to drags from retail and manufacturing, where the impacts of tariffs are increasing and affecting employment. But they say hiring by professional-services companies is also running soft, suggesting slower hiring is about more than just trade.
The Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes suggested that officials aren’t sure yet how to read the slowdown in employment growth. “On the one hand, the slowing could be interpreted as a natural consequence of the economy being near full employment,” the Fed said. “On the other hand, slowing job gains might also be indicative of some cooling in labor demand, which may be consistent with an observed decline in the rate of job openings and decreases in other measures of labor market tightness.” Investors will be looking for clues on whether the slowdown is more about the former or the latter.
Earnings
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect workers’ average hourly earnings to have risen 0.3% from a month earlier. From a year earlier, wages are expected to have risen 3%.
UBS sees upside to the month-over-month figure, pegging it at 0.36%. Since these figures are usually rounded, that would print at 0.4%.
Wage growth in recent months has been weak, rising just 0.2% in October after staying flat in September.
Unemployment Rate
Economists anticipate no change in the unemployment rate for November, which registered 3.6% last month.
Jefferies is again more optimistic here than the consensus and predicts a downtick to 3.5%. Economists there say the unemployment rate has declined an average of 0.047% this business cycle during the month of November. Adjusting October’s 3.562% rate by that average decline would bring a 3.5% reading, they say.
UBS, for its part, says it’s looking for a 3.6% unemployment rate as a small rise in prime-age employment is offset by a slight decline in the labor-force participation rate. That participation rate registered at 63.3% in October, up just slightly from prior months but the best reading since August 2013.
Write to Lisa Beilfuss at lisa.beilfuss@dowjones.com
"jobs" - Google News
December 04, 2019 at 08:00PM
https://ift.tt/37ZeNTM
Friday’s Jobs Report Is Expected to Show Solid Gains (Return of Striking GM Workers Notwithstanding) - Barron's
"jobs" - Google News
https://ift.tt/36m99ub
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update
No comments:
Post a Comment